Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome markets explained

An outcome is a fully collateralized contract on Hyperliquid that settles within a fixed range, which makes it useful for prediction markets and bounded, options-like instruments. Unlike perpetuals, outcomes are dated contracts and do not involve leverage or liquidations. The documentation adds that they compose with other HyperCore primitives such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM.

Each outcome market has two sides, each with its own token, often labeled Yes and No. At settlement, Yes converts to a settlement fraction of the quote token and No to one minus that fraction, so a binary Yes result pays 1 quote token per Yes token and nothing per No token. The documentation describes the first mainnet market as a recurring binary outcome that settles daily at 06:00 UTC to the BTC mark price on HyperCore.

The Yes and No order books of the same outcome are merged so that both sides share liquidity: buying Yes at price p is equivalent to selling No at 1 − p. For example, a bid for Yes at 0.40 is the same order as an offer to sell No at 0.60.

Under the merged book, price-time priority becomes price-side-time priority: at the same merged price level, resting sell orders are sorted before resting buy orders on the dual side. Advanced users can also split and merge outcomes to convert between primary and dual balances. The documentation notes that some details will be improved later; for example, historical orders can show the primary and dual parts separately when an order both matches and rests on the book. Questions, which group several outcomes, are covered further down this page.

At the time of writing (October 2026), the Hyperliquid HIP-4 documentation states that fees for outcome markets are zero during initial testing. Builder codes work as in spot trading, with builders earning builder fees on sell orders that include their code; under the builder code rules, the buying side of spot trades carries no builder fee.

These terms can change as HIP-4 rolls out, so confirm the current fees in the official documentation and in your order confirmation before trading.

A HIP-4 position gains or loses the difference between its settlement value and the price you paid, and the most you can lose is what you paid, because each token settles to between 0 and 1 quote token. For example, buying 100 Yes tokens at 0.40 costs 40 quote tokens. If the outcome settles Yes, they convert to 100 quote tokens, a gain of 60. If it settles No, they are worth nothing and the loss is 40.

The No side mirrors this. Buying 100 No tokens at 0.60 costs 60 quote tokens and returns 100 if the outcome settles No, a gain of 40, or nothing if it settles Yes. The settlement rule also allows a fraction between 0 and 1: for example, with a settlement fraction of 0.25, each Yes token converts to 0.25 quote tokens and each No token to 0.75. Any fees that apply come on top of these figures.

A HIP-4 question is a set of outcomes in which exactly one outcome settles to Yes and all the others settle to No, for example several possible results of one event. Each outcome trades on its own order book, and the outcomes are linked by negate and merge operations.

Because only one outcome can win, No tokens across a question have a predictable combined value. For example, holding one No token on each of three outcomes pays 2 quote tokens in total at settlement, whichever outcome wins, since only the winner’s No token settles to zero. The documentation states that users with No shares on different outcomes of the same question can redeem quote tokens before the underlying outcomes settle. Multi-outcome markets were not part of the initial mainnet release, so check the documentation for what is live.

The main risk in a HIP-4 outcome market is losing the full amount you paid for tokens on the side that settles to zero. There is no leverage or liquidation, and the price on the order book is set by traders, so it is not a verified probability or a forecast.

Perpex’s predictions screen is an interface to HIP-4 markets: the markets are created and settled on Hyperliquid, and Perpex does not run or resolve them. On Perpex, orders are paid with USDC from your spot balance, and the documentation notes that the outcome trading API is similar to spot. Availability may be restricted in some jurisdictions, and nothing on this page is financial advice.